Syed Ali Nadeem Rezavi

The question whether history is a science has troubled historians for a very long time, and at first sight the answer might appear simple. Historians collect evidence, formulate arguments, test propositions and revise their conclusions when new evidence becomes available, and in all these respects their practice shares common ground with scientific inquiry. Yet a fundamental difference persists. The historian studies a world that no longer exists; the past cannot be placed in a laboratory, observed repeatedly or reproduced under controlled conditions. Historical events occur once and are irreversible, and for this reason history cannot be a science in the same sense as physics, chemistry or the experimental branches of biology. This does not reduce history to mere opinion, for it remains a disciplined and evidence‑based form of knowledge with its own rigorous methods for determining what may reasonably be asserted about the past. The significant distinction is therefore not between science and imagination, but between different ways of establishing knowledge.
The natural scientist can ordinarily observe phenomena that continue to exist: an experiment can be repeated, variables can sometimes be isolated and another researcher can attempt to reproduce the results. The historian possesses no comparable possibility. The Revolt of 1857 cannot be rerun; we cannot reconstruct Akbar’s court, remove Abul Fazl from it and discover whether sulh‑i kul would still have developed in the same manner; nor can we repeat the Partition of India while altering one political decision in 1946 to see whether Partition would still have occurred. What the historian possesses is not the past itself but the traces left behind by it, chronicles, letters, administrative documents, inscriptions, coins, buildings, archaeological remains, paintings, memoirs, newspapers, photographs, oral traditions and many other kinds of evidence. The historian begins with these surviving traces and attempts to reconstruct the circumstances in which they were produced and the world to which they belonged. The historian therefore works backwards from evidence towards explanation, whereas a scientist may formulate a hypothesis and design an experiment to test it; a historian asks a question and then examines whether the surviving evidence permits a particular answer. This difference is significant because it places limits upon what historians can claim to know.
These limits become especially clear when we consider counterfactual history – the attempt to ask what would have happened if a particular historical event had occurred differently. Such questions are often fascinating, and occasionally they can assist us in thinking about causation, but they cannot provide historical knowledge in the same sense as the study of events that actually occurred. Consider the frequently asked question: what would have happened if Dara Shukoh had defeated Aurangzeb and become the Mughal emperor? We know a considerable amount about Dara Shukoh: his interest in Sufism, his engagement with Hindu religious thought, his association with the translation of the Upanishads into Persian and his intellectual outlook are all matters that can be investigated historically because evidence survives for them. But there is no historical evidence for Emperor Dara Shukoh because Emperor Dara Shukoh never existed. The Dara whom history allows us to study was a Mughal prince who contested the succession and lost; we cannot know how twenty years of kingship might have changed him, what pressures he might have encountered, which alliances he might have formed, what rebellions he might have faced or what compromises the requirements of government might have forced upon him. To move from the ideas of Prince Dara to confident statements about the policies of an imaginary Emperor Dara is to cross the boundary between historical inference and speculation.
The same difficulty arises when we ask what would have happened if the British had not introduced railways into India. Historians can investigate why the railways were constructed, how they were financed and what effects they had upon trade, markets, military movement, migration, urbanisation and the circulation of people and ideas; they can debate whether particular consequences attributed to the railways have been exaggerated. What they cannot do is remove the railway from nineteenth‑century India and observe what happens next. Perhaps roads would have developed more rapidly, perhaps coastal shipping would have expanded, perhaps other technologies would have filled part of the gap; patterns of trade, industrialisation, migration and urbanisation might have followed quite different paths, but once one element is removed from a historical situation, other elements also begin to change, and there is no alternative nineteenth‑century India available for comparison with the India that actually existed.
Counterfactual questions can nevertheless serve a limited analytical purpose: if a historian argues that a particular development could not have occurred without the railways, asking what alternative mechanisms might have produced it can expose weaknesses in that causal argument. Counterfactual reasoning can therefore help historians think about necessity, contingency and causation, but what it cannot do is establish an alternative sequence of events as historical knowledge. Possibility is not evidence, plausibility is not proof, and an imagined alternative is not history.
This limitation arises partly because historians study human beings rather than objects governed only by physical laws. Human beings possess intentions, ambitions, fears, prejudices, beliefs and memories; they react to circumstances and to one another, and they may behave differently in apparently similar situations. A falling object does not know Newton’s laws and alter its behaviour because it has read them; human beings, by contrast, may read theories about society and change their behaviour because of them. History consequently cannot normally produce universal laws capable of predicting human events, which is why Marc Bloch’s famous description of history as the “science of men in time” needs to be understood carefully. The French word science has a broader intellectual meaning than the narrower modern English association with experimental natural science; Bloch was emphasising the systematic and critical nature of historical enquiry, not suggesting that the historian could reproduce the Battle of Waterloo or the French Revolution in a laboratory. Historians nevertheless share something important with scientists: a commitment to evidence. Historical arguments must be capable of being examined, challenged and, where necessary, rejected. If a historian claims that a Mughal emperor issued a particular order, another historian is entitled to ask where that order is to be found, whether the document is authentic, when it was written, whether contemporary sources mention it and whether administrative evidence suggests that it was actually implemented. A proposition unsupported by evidence does not become historical merely because it is confidently asserted.
The historian’s method is therefore based upon source criticism. A source is not accepted simply because it is old; the historian asks who produced it, when it was produced, for whom it was intended and why it was written. A court chronicler may exaggerate the achievements of his patron; an inscription may proclaim a victory more complete than the evidence suggests; a colonial official may describe Indian society through assumptions created by colonial administration; a nationalist writer may romanticise the past; a religious text may preserve important memories while serving purposes very different from those of a modern historical account. The historian must therefore interrogate the source: what could its author have known? What interests did the author possess? Is the account contemporary with the event? Can its statements be checked against independent evidence? Do coins, inscriptions, administrative documents or archaeological remains confirm or contradict it? Historical knowledge becomes stronger when different and independent forms of evidence converge. R. G. Collingwood placed this relationship between question and evidence at the centre of historical knowledge, observing that sources do not simply speak to us; historians ask questions of them. A royal chronicle praising an emperor may tell us something about the emperor, but it may tell us just as much about the conventions of kingship, the expectations of patronage and the political language of the court. The historian is therefore neither a passive collector of facts nor a novelist with complete freedom to construct a story.
This brings us to the difficult question of interpretation. Every serious historical account involves interpretation because evidence does not arrange itself into an explanation; historians decide which questions to ask, which connections are significant and how particular developments are to be explained. Two historians may study the same Mughal revenue system and reach different conclusions, one may emphasise agrarian extraction and pressure upon the peasantry, while another may place greater emphasis upon monetisation, commercialisation and economic expansion, and both interpretations may be legitimate if both are able to account seriously for the available evidence. Interpretation, however, is not the same as invention. The existence of disagreement among historians does not mean that every account of the past is equally valid; evidence places boundaries around interpretation. Historians may disagree about the character and consequences of the Mughal land‑revenue system, but one cannot reasonably argue that no such system existed, for the documentary evidence would make such a claim impossible to sustain. This distinction is particularly important when E. H. Carr’s description of history as an “unending dialogue between the present and the past” is invoked. Carr did not mean that every generation is free to create whichever past it finds politically or emotionally convenient; historians inevitably approach the past from the present, and they ask questions shaped by their own societies and intellectual concerns, and new questions can reveal aspects of the past overlooked by earlier generations. Yet the answers remain constrained by evidence; the present may ask the questions, but it cannot dictate the answers.
History therefore differs fundamentally from collective memory, mythology and propaganda. Memory tells us how individuals or communities remember the past, and those memories are themselves important subjects of historical enquiry; myth may reveal how societies understand their origins and identities; propaganda selects or manufactures versions of the past for present purposes. History must do something different: it asks what can reasonably be established about what happened, on the basis of evidence that can be examined and challenged by others. Historical knowledge is necessarily provisional. Documents disappear, archaeological discoveries produce new information and neglected sources may transform an established interpretation, so a historian may revise an earlier conclusion without undermining the discipline of history. Indeed, the willingness to change an interpretation when the evidence demands it is one of the strengths of historical scholarship. The absence of absolute certainty should not be confused with the absence of truth. A court record may be incomplete, a chronicler may be biased and an archaeological layer may permit more than one interpretation, but this does not mean that the historian knows nothing. Historical knowledge exists in degrees of probability and confidence: some conclusions are overwhelmingly supported by evidence, others remain probable, and still others must remain uncertain. Intellectual honesty requires the historian to distinguish between them.
There is consequently something misleading about asking simply whether history is or is not a science. If by science we mean an experimental discipline capable of reproducing phenomena, controlling variables and establishing universal predictive laws, history is clearly not a science; if, however, we mean a systematic form of enquiry governed by evidence, criticism, verification and rational argument, history possesses many qualities associated with scientific thought. It is perhaps more useful to describe history as a critical discipline for establishing and explaining what can reasonably be known about the human past. Its strength does not lie in reproducing the past experimentally, because that is impossible; its strength lies in the disciplined interrogation of the evidence the past has left behind. This understanding also defines the historian’s limits. Historians can explain why Dara Shukoh lost the war of succession; they cannot tell us what India would certainly have become had he won it. They can investigate what the railways did to colonial India; they cannot reconstruct with historical certainty an India in which the railways were never introduced. They can debate why an empire declined, why a revolution occurred or why a political movement succeeded, but they cannot rerun history with one variable altered and observe the result. The historian must therefore resist two temptations: the first is to pretend that history possesses the experimental certainty of the natural sciences; the second, and more dangerous, is to conclude that because such certainty is impossible, anything may be said about the past. Neither position is defensible. History occupies the demanding ground between them: it accepts uncertainty without surrendering to relativism, allows interpretation without permitting invention and recognises imagination as useful only when disciplined by evidence. The historian may ask what was possible, what contemporaries believed was possible and why one possibility prevailed over another; what the historian cannot do is convert a past that never happened into a past that can somehow be known. Ultimately, therefore, the distinction is quite simple. The past cannot be repeated, but it can be investigated; it cannot be experimentally recreated, but its surviving traces can be critically examined; it cannot tell us with certainty what might have happened, but it can tell us a great deal about what did happen and why. That is both the limitation of history and the source of its intellectual integrity.





